Who Will Win the Women's World Cup 2027? Simulator Predictions and Title Odds
Updated 29 October 2026. Odds come from our free Women's World Cup 2027 simulator, built on the official FIFA women's ranking of 20 October 2026. Tournament facts from FIFA.
Quick answer: Spain are the favourites to win the 2027 Women's World Cup in Brazil, with a 16.2% title chance in our simulator. They are world champions and FIFA's No. 1 with 2,121.50 points. The USA (10.2%), Germany (9.4%), England (8.7%) and hosts Brazil (7.9%) complete the top five. No team is above 20%, so the 2027 title is wide open.
Run it yourself: the Women's World Cup 2027 simulator plays all 64 matches, from 8 groups through the Round of 16 to the Maracanã final. It's free, with no signup.
Women's World Cup 2027 title odds: top 10
| # | Team | FIFA rank | FIFA points | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | 1 | 2,121.50 | 16.2% |
| 2 | 🇺🇸 USA | 2 | 2,042.38 | 10.2% |
| 3 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 3 | 2,034.62 | 9.4% |
| 4 | 🏴 England | 4 | 2,025.47 | 8.7% |
| 5 | 🇧🇷 Brazil (hosts) | 7 | 1,970.87 | 7.9% |
| 6 | 🇯🇵 Japan | 5 | 1,994.43 | 7.0% |
| 7 | 🇫🇷 France | 6 | 1,983.77 | 6.4% |
| 8 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | 8 | 1,938.13 | 4.5% |
| 9 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 9 | 1,926.96 | 4.1% |
| 10 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | 10 | 1,920.14 | 3.8% |
The top ten add up to 78.2%. The other 22 teams share the remaining 21.8%. The Netherlands (3.6%), Korea DPR (3.5%), Norway (2.7%) and Italy (2.4%) lead the chasing pack.
Brazil sit fifth on odds despite being seventh in the ranking because the simulator adds a +50 home rating adjustment for the hosts.
How the Women's World Cup 2027 simulator works
The simulator uses the same model as our men's 2026 and 2030 simulators, adapted to the 32-team women's format.
| Step | What happens |
|---|---|
| 1. Team strength | FIFA women's ranking points (20 Oct 2026). FIFA's system is Elo-based. |
| 2. Home advantage | Brazil get +50 rating as hosts. Every other team uses its FIFA points unchanged. |
| 3. Match model | Each match uses an Elo-style win probability from the two ratings. |
| 4. Title odds | 70% rating strength, 30% ranking position, normalised so all 32 teams add up to 100%. |
| 5. Tournament | 8 groups of four, top two to the Round of 16, then quarter-finals, semi-finals, bronze final and final. |
Three ways to use it
- Single simulation: play one full tournament and see every group table and knockout score.
- Bulk simulation: run 1,000 or 10,000 tournaments to see how often each team wins.
- Team journey: pick one team and follow its path through the tournament.
The 32-team simulator field
Brazil 2027 has 32 places. 18 teams have qualified as of October 2026, and the simulator locks all of them in. The other 14 places use the highest-ranked teams still alive in the UEFA play-offs, the Concacaf W Championship and the inter-confederation play-off.
Qualified (18)
Brazil (hosts), Spain, Germany, France, Denmark, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, China PR, Australia, Philippines, Argentina, Colombia, New Zealand, Cameroon, Morocco, Algeria and Malawi.
Projected in the simulator (14)
| Team | FIFA rank | Route still to complete |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 2 | Concacaf W Championship QF (vs El Salvador) |
| 🏴 England | 4 | UEFA play-off round 2 (vs Ukraine) |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 8 | UEFA play-off round 2 (vs Scotland) |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 9 | Concacaf W Championship QF (vs Panama) |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 11 | UEFA play-off round 2 (vs Slovenia) |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 13 | UEFA play-off round 2 (vs Wales) |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 14 | UEFA play-off round 2 (vs Finland) |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland | 16 | UEFA play-off round 2 (vs Portugal) |
| 🇮🇪 Republic of Ireland | 21 | UEFA play-off round 2 (vs Poland) |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 25 | Inter-confederation play-off |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 28 | Concacaf W Championship QF (vs Haiti) |
| 🇹🇼 Chinese Taipei | 38 | Inter-confederation play-off |
| 🇯🇲 Jamaica | 40 | Concacaf W Championship QF (vs Costa Rica) |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica | 41 | Inter-confederation play-off |
These 14 are projections, not confirmed qualifiers. When results come in, we swap in the real teams.
Favourites in focus
Spain: the team to beat (16.2%)
The world champions top the FIFA ranking by almost 80 points. Spain qualified as UEFA League A group winners and are the only team in the simulator above 15%. A Spain win would make them back-to-back champions, something only the USA (2015, 2019) and Germany (2003, 2007) have done.
USA: four-time champions (10.2%)
The most successful nation in Women's World Cup history (1991, 1999, 2015, 2019) are FIFA's No. 2. They still have to finish qualifying through the Concacaf W Championship. In the simulator they are a projected entry.
Germany (9.4%) and England (8.7%)
Germany already have two titles (2003, 2007) and qualified directly as League A group winners. England, 2023 runners-up and FIFA's No. 4, are in UEFA play-off round 2 against Ukraine.
Brazil: the host-nation factor (7.9%)
Brazil have never won the Women's World Cup. With the opener and final at the Maracanã and a home crowd behind them, the simulator lifts them above Japan and France on title odds, despite their lower ranking. In our illustrative draw, Brazil sit in Group A, which is fixed for the hosts.
Japan (7.0%) and France (6.4%)
Japan, champions in 2011, qualified through the AFC Women's Asian Cup 2026 and are FIFA's No. 5. France, No. 6, qualified as League A group winners and are still chasing a first final.
Dark horses and debutants
| Team | FIFA rank | Title chance | Why watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇰🇵 Korea DPR | 12 | 3.5% | Highest-ranked qualified team outside the top ten |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 15 | 1.7% | 2023 co-hosts and semi-finalists |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 19 | 1.0% | 2023 quarter-finalists |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 73 | 0.1% | Debut via WAFCON 2026 third place |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | 104 | 0.1% | Debut; lowest-ranked team in the field |
Algeria and Malawi are the first-time qualifiers so far, both through WAFCON 2026, where Cameroon were crowned champions.
Are the simulator groups real?
No, not yet. The official final draw is on Friday 11 December 2026 at the Museum of Modern Art (MAM Rio) in Rio de Janeiro. Until then, the simulator uses illustrative groups: Brazil in Group A, the rest seeded by FIFA ranking, with teams from the same confederation kept apart where possible.
We will update the simulator with the real groups on draw day. Title odds will move once the group paths are known.
Women's World Cup 2027 format in the simulator
| Stage | Teams | Matches | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group stage | 32 | 48 | All 8 host cities |
| Round of 16 | 16 | 8 | All 8 host cities |
| Quarter-finals | 8 | 4 | Belo Horizonte, Fortaleza, Rio, São Paulo |
| Semi-finals | 4 | 2 | Rio, São Paulo |
| Bronze final | 2 | 1 | São Paulo |
| Final | 2 | 1 | Maracanã, Rio · 25 July 2027 |
There are no best third-placed qualifiers. That is the key difference from the men's 48-team format, where the simulator also has a Round of 32.
For dates, stadiums and the full list of qualified teams, see our Women's World Cup 2027 guide and the Brazil 2027 hub.
Disclaimer
The simulator is a fan tool for entertainment and analysis. Title odds are model outputs from the FIFA ranking, not betting odds, and they will change after qualifying results and the official draw.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Women's World Cup 2027?
Spain are the favourites, with a 16.2% title chance in our simulator. The USA (10.2%), Germany (9.4%), England (8.7%) and Brazil (7.9%) follow.
What are Brazil's chances at the 2027 Women's World Cup?
7.9% in our simulator, fifth overall. Brazil are FIFA's No. 7 and get a +50 home rating adjustment as hosts.
Is there a Women's World Cup 2027 simulator?
Yes. Our free Women's World Cup 2027 simulator plays all 64 matches with title odds from the FIFA women's ranking. No signup is needed.
How are the Women's World Cup 2027 odds calculated?
From the official FIFA women's ranking points of 20 October 2026, blended 70/30 with ranking position. Brazil get a +50 home adjustment. The odds are normalised so all 32 teams add up to 100%.
Are the Women's World Cup 2027 groups decided?
Not yet. The final draw is on 11 December 2026 in Rio de Janeiro. The simulator uses illustrative groups until then.
Can the USA win the 2027 Women's World Cup?
Yes. The four-time champions are FIFA's No. 2 and second favourites at 10.2%. They still have to complete qualifying through the Concacaf W Championship.
How many teams play in the Women's World Cup 2027?
32 teams in 8 groups of four. The top two from each group reach the Round of 16.